Monday, November 18, 2002

Arab military optimism

It seems to me that there is this bizarre optimistic notion in the Arab world that any group of people, no matter how small, uncoordinated and under armed and underfunded can do anything, like take over a country. Even a half a dozen street kids with 4 old rifles between them. Most of the "militias" in Lebanon were like that during the civil war. The PLO believed it could take over Jordan. Then when it failed, it was simply looked at as a minor setback and they attempted to take over Lebanon (which was the Civil War). It still thinks it can take over Israel. This attitude is given credence when ther are such fortuitious events such as Israel pulling out of south Lebanon. Hezbolla not only takes credit, but actually thinks it caused it. (It was actually a function of Israeli politics under the dovish Barak.)

This of course explains the plethorea of groups that exist in abundance with avowed goals of taking over countries, liberating the Arab/muslim world, and destroying the west. This explains the popularity of Hezbollah and bin Ladenism. Bin Laden it is believed can take on the West and win. The Shiites and Allowites have also been such sects, and in the Allowites case, with some success.

(See also all the literature by Dominic D. P. Johnson, Richard W. Wrangham, and Stephen Peter Rosen on the adaptiveness of military incompetence, which this seems to be a prime example of.)