Europe to Oppose U.S. Effort to Air Iran Arms Issue in U.N.

Europe to Oppose U.S. Effort to Air Iran Arms Issue in U.N. reads the times headline. Europe, and frankly the middle east is gearing itself up, not for the simple shooting itself in the foot type accident, put probably blowing its head off type catastrophe.

How do I mean. It comes back to Israel and the UN. Look, here is what is happenning. Israel is currently marginalized by the UN. They have little say in what goes on there, and there is nothing that they can do there. At this point, except for keeping up appearances, it is not at all clear what Israel is doing there. Israel gets nothing out of the UN.

So the benefits of the UN are zero. Moreoever, given UN routine condemnations, Israel gets less than nothing, it gets to be humiliated (which would be easier to ignore if Israel were not part of the UN). And, given that there are no benifits, the cost of defiance is pretty low too. Israel is thinking, if you've got nothing, you've got nothing to loose. By defying the UN Israel will get what they are getting anyway, condemnation.

So now Iran is upping the stakes. Iran is a big threat to Israel. Iran is not building nuclear weapons to defeat the Iraqis. Iran has only one target - Israel. If the UN cannot reassure Israel that the UN has Israel's best interest at heart, which they have never been able to do, not in the Siani, not in Lebanon, and not with Iraq, then Israel will think it has to take care of Iran herself. The only thing stopping Israel is the fact that the UN wont like it.

If the EU keeps making sure that anything that will reassure Israel is off its agenda, then it it setting the stage for a catastrophe in the Middle East. Either Israel will have to take out the reactor, or there will be an attempt at a nuclear exchange.