Democracy in Iraq

The big question today is what happens to post-war Iraq. Here is the concern: will Iraq become the next Iran? Will the Shi'i sweep the elections? The answer is: if the elections take place today, yes. Why? Well, any screwed-up, disenfranchised people will go religious. That is normal. Currently Iraq is a screwed-up disenfranchised place. Look at France. Their first elections for Islamic leaders are fanatical Shi'i, precisely because they are all poor, religious, unused to democracy, brainwashed, and scared. Once the fanatics are in power it will be really hard to dislodge them. If they were to control the whole country as in the Iraqi case, they can arrange the laws such that it is really hard to dislodge them. The Shites have already set up a massive infrastructure in post-war Iraq.

But as in Lebanon, the Shites who at first welcomed the Israelis and ended up kiling them, we should not take this as a sign that they will like us tomorrow, or even today. As a matter of fact as soon as we liberated the country, the Shi'a started to make religious pligrimages that were not allowed for the last thirty something years under Saadam Hussain. So what do they do as soon as they get there? Thyey go to the shrine of Imam Ali and chand "Death to America, Death to Israel". There is something retardedly ungrateful about the culture.

Once a democracy is in place and Islamic fanatics win, two things happen. First, we are screwed because it would be wrong to interfere with a democracy, and two, we get blamed for whatever they do, because "we caused it".

So the only real solution is to hold on to the country until it is no longer scared and poor then have elections where there are few if any fanatics on the tickets. Then make sure none of them win, and then help the moderates succeed. If the moderates succeed, then the next election can be truly free. The US is hoping for a good secular Jeffersonian democracy. When Arabs think of democracy they think of elections. (Thanks to A- for that formulation.) Iraq had elections, so does Syria. But they are not free. We need to create the conditions such that a free election produces good results. Until that happens we cannot leave Iraq. We need to solve their problems before they become our problems again.